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Bitcoin Amid Trade Wars and Chinese New Year: Navigating Economic Turbulence

Writer's picture: Tib TibTib Tib

In 2025, Bitcoin remains at the center of economic shifts, with geopolitical tensions and seasonal market trends shaping its trajectory. The renewed U.S. trade war under President Donald Trump and the influence of the Chinese New Year are key factors driving speculation in the crypto markets. However, beyond these macroeconomic factors, the recent Bitcoin dip appears to be more of a strategic market move—a classic bear trap—rather than a true downturn linked to tariffs.

The Resurgence of U.S. Trade Wars and Inflation Risks

With Trump back in the White House, his administration has revived aggressive protectionist policies, imposing heavy tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada. While aimed at boosting American industries, these measures have raised concerns about inflation, as higher import costs drive up consumer prices.

Many analysts warn that these trade policies could increase inflationary pressures, reducing purchasing power and complicating economic recovery. This uncertainty often pushes investors toward alternative assets—especially Bitcoin.

Bitcoin as a Safe Haven in Economic Uncertainty

When inflation looms, investors traditionally turn to hard assets like gold. However, Bitcoin is increasingly seen as the digital equivalent of gold due to its fixed supply and decentralized nature.

  • Unlike fiat currencies, Bitcoin cannot be devalued by central banks printing more money.

  • Past inflationary cycles have seen increased Bitcoin demand, reinforcing its status as an inflation hedge.

  • With global economic uncertainty, Bitcoin could see a renewed surge as investors seek alternative stores of value.

Chinese New Year: A Seasonal Bitcoin Catalyst


The Chinese New Year has historically played a role in Bitcoin price movements. In 11 of the last 12 years, Bitcoin has seen gains during this period, with an 83% success rate.

This recurring trend is linked to increased liquidity and financial planning among Chinese investors. Given China's influence in the crypto markets, the 2025 Chinese New Year could act as a bullish force, adding to Bitcoin’s potential rebound.

My Prediction: A Bear Trap Before a New High?

While some attribute Bitcoin's recent pullback to economic fears, I see it as a classic market shakeout—a deliberate move by institutional investors to accumulate BTC at lower prices before the next major rally.

Price Forecast for February-March 2025:

  • The current dip is likely an accumulation phase rather than a real correction.

  • Institutional buying and economic uncertainties could fuel a sharp rebound.

  • By late February, Bitcoin may reach new all-time highs, possibly hitting $120,000 USD.

Final Thoughts: The Race for Digital Gold Reserves



With inflation concerns and shifting global trade policies, Bitcoin’s role as a hedge is becoming undeniable. Some nations are now exploring BTC as a strategic reserve asset, similar to how gold once backed the U.S. dollar.

As history teaches us, economic powerhouses adapt to new realities. Bitcoin could soon become the new standard of wealth, forcing nations to secure their digital gold reserves before it's too late.

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